Even though the Palm Beach housing market doesn’t precisely echo wider national moves, a connection between the two is only natural. There’s a psychological tendency to respect what authoritative sources avow—and most of the information about real estate that comes to our attention is national, not local. If the morning’s headlines include mention of the latest housing market leap or stumble, it registers. We may be perfectly aware that Palm Beach’s residential results are apt to be their own thing, but we also know that our expectations (and our neighbors’) will tend to be colored by the zeitgeist as presented.
As U.S. Expectations Jitterbug, Palm Beach Market Data Rules
That’s why, despite its national nature, last week’s news about the U.S. housing market was positive for the Palm Beach residential outlook. The gist of the wider narrative was that the U.S. housing market “might” (the italics were yahoo.com’s) “finally be nearing the bottom.” Since the opinion had been published by no less an authority than Goldman Sachs—and especially since Goldman had downgraded its widely heralded outlook only two weeks earlier—it did have more than the usual ring of credibility.
The previous downgrade had made a splash at the start of the new year. The paper titled “Getting Worse Before Getting Better” predicted home prices would fall as much as 10% by mid-year 2023—a good deal more negative than most real estate experts had predicted. Goldman quickly revised that to 6.1%, peak-to-trough, a call that may have been influenced by how out-of-step it had been with other financial seers.
But last week’s projection seemed formulated by new data. Fortune called it “a bold housing market call”—and yahoo.com agreed. Goldman now expects national home prices to end the year down just 2.6%. Considering the previous leaps in residential prices, that’s practically flatlining. Combined with the uptick in mortgage purchase applications (already 9% above the October slump), it could foreshadow a stronger market all around.
Our Palm Beach housing market hasn’t nosedived or soared in response to Goldman’s jitterbugging expectations, but local future buyers and sellers exposed to the more optimistic forecasts probably took note. Exactly what the impending spring busy season will bring is a subject for speculation, but one thing is certain: canny buyers and sellers will make decisions weighted toward what the local results reveal.
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